H-1B Lottery Analysis: FY 2027 Projections
Lawfully recently reviewed the H-1B registration and selection data of a diverse group of organizations, analyzing a total of 523 registrations.
Our analysis highlights a significant shift in lottery outcomes following the transition to a weighted selection system and the implementation of the $100,000 supplemental fee.
Registration Demand and Market Volume
According to our analysis, total registrations for this cycle are projected to fall between 195,000 and 235,000, which is a 32 - 43% decrease compared to last year.
This reduction reflects Lawfully’s earlier projection, as reported in Bloomberg on December 15, 2025.
While USCIS is unlikely to release its official H-1B lottery data until mid-May 2026, our analysis of current selection trends indicates a conservative selection strategy.
We anticipate total selections will land between 95,000 and 115,000.
Because the $100k H-1B fee and overall market shifts have reduced registrations from outside the U.S., selection-to-filing conversion rate will likely be higher.
Therefore, USCIS likely requires fewer total selections to reach the 85,000 cap.
Selection Rates by Prevailing Wage (PW) Level
The new weighted lottery system ties selection probability to the designated prevailing wage level of the registrant.
According to our analysis, the selection rates across the four tiers are as follows:
| Prevailing Wage Level | Est. Selection Rate |
|---|---|
| Level I | 28% |
| Level II | 47% |
| Level III | 65% |
| Level IV | 69% |
| Average Selection Rate | 52% |
According to our estimates, the shift from the randomized lottery to the weighted lottery resulted in an estimated 30,000 - 40,000 additional selections for Level III and IV roles compared to the previous randomized lottery system.
Shift in Employer Registration Strategy
According to our analysis, employers have adjusted their filing strategies to favor higher wage tiers where selection odds are more favorable. We found that the year-over-year distribution of the registration pool shifted as follows:
- Level IV: 12% increase in registrations
- Level III: 11% increase in registrations
- Level II: 14% decrease in registrations
- Level I: 8% decrease in registrations
This shift suggests that companies are increasing offered wages or prioritizing more experienced talent to improve their probability of selection.
FY 2027 Projected Selection Volume
The following table outlines the projected breakdown of the lottery results based on our analysis, with an estimated margin of error of ±4%.
| Prevailing Wage Level | Est. Selections | Est. Registrations |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 17,441 | 62,344 |
| Level II | 24,863 | 53,438 |
| Level III | 27,461 | 41,934 |
| Level IV | 25,234 | 36,367 |
| Totals | 95,000 | 194,082 |
| Prevailing Wage Level | Est. Selections | Est. Registrations |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 21,113 | 75,469 |
| Level II | 30,098 | 64,688 |
| Level III | 33,242 | 50,762 |
| Level IV | 30,547 | 44,023 |
| Totals | 115,000 | 234,941 |
Questions? Reach out to Lawfully’s Head of Insights & Strategy, Finn Reynolds, at finnreynolds@lawfully.com.
